Wageningen Social & Economic Research (WSER) has been asked to conduct a scenario study on the ambition of being climate-neutral by 2040. Four scenarios provide insight into possible sector developments with differences in social support and market valuation, giving parties points of reference for policy and approach.
The horticulture sector aims to be climate-neutral in an economically viable way by 2040. WSER has developed four scenarios based on differences in social support and market valuation. The study was conducted in the context of the Energy Transition Greenhouse Horticulture Covenant 2022-2030, a study that provides four images of greenhouse horticulture in terms of area, energy consumption, energy supply, and economic perspective.
Heat demand decreases, electricity demand varies per scenario
In each of the scenarios for 2040, the total area of greenhouse horticulture in the Netherlands decreases. All scenarios confirm that saving energy is very important to becoming climate-neutral. In spite of this, though, energy consumption will not go to zero, so CO2-free sources and corresponding infrastructure are necessary.
The covenant's premise, namely that it must be both climate neutral and economically viable, has the greatest chance of success in the 'value' scenario. This scenario is characterized by broad social support, high market valuation, and only a limited decrease in area.
In the 'Cost' scenario, with limited social support, lower market valuation, and significantly less area, that chance is much smaller. Therefore, the focus of the sector and government is on social support, high-quality products, energy saving, and the sustainability of energy consumption.
Read the full report (in Dutch) here.
Source: Glastuinbouw Nederland