North America is preparing for the termination of the U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement, with tariffs of 20.91% set to take effect on July 14, 2025, potentially reshaping tomato trade in the region. Mexico remains the main supplier, though supply is shifting as the season winds down and spring demand builds.
In the Netherlands, a sunny spring has boosted tomato growth, but growers continue to face disease pressure and adaptation challenges with new ToBRFV-resistant varieties. Prices have begun to decline as volumes increase and imports from Spain decrease.
Spain's fall tomato season is nearing completion, with average prices reaching €0.96/kg, higher than last season. Spring tomatoes from Guadix and Zafarraya will extend marketing into summer, aided by resistant varieties.
© Viola van den Hoven-Katsman | HortiDaily.com
The Sicilian tomato season in Italy has remained steady, with lower virus pressure leading to better yields. Prices for cherry, Datterino, and Piccadilly tomatoes remain stable, though competition from other European regions is expected to intensify.
In Germany, the tomato market is seeing broad availability from multiple countries as seasons conclude. Prices for meat, vine, and round tomatoes are significantly higher than last year.
France experienced a price rise in early April due to limited southern European supply, followed by a decline as production ramped up across Europe. Increased volumes from Morocco, Spain, and the Benelux countries contributed to the drop.
South Africa's Gauteng market has been unpredictable, with high rainfall impacting quality and shelf life. Despite higher volumes, average prices are down around 25% from last April.
Morocco recorded a 19% rise in tomato exports, reaching 690,000 tons, despite losses from ToBRFV and ongoing drought. Trade tensions with Europe persist, with critical talks expected at upcoming industry events in April and May.
North America: Tomato trade deal with Mexico set to end
This week, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would terminate the 2019 U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement, effective July 14, 2025. The termination means the U.S. intends to impose duties of approximately 20.91 percent on Mexican tomato exports starting July 14. In response, the Mexican government plans to engage with the U.S. on renewing a bilateral agreement for tomato exports.
Currently, Mexico remains the primary supplier of tomatoes to the U.S., with its winter season still ongoing, although it is expected to wind down soon. Additional supply is coming from states such as Florida and California, along with greenhouse-grown tomatoes.
Recent cold weather conditions reduced demand for tomatoes, as shopping and dining out declined. However, with the arrival of spring, there are expectations that demand will increase again.
Regarding pricing, the tomato market had been elevated for some time before softening slightly. More recently, prices have shown a modest rebound.
Netherlands: Sunny spring boosts growth, but disease poses hurdles
The month of March and the first half of April were exceptionally sunny. For unlit crops, this created an opportunity to gain momentum, especially after the grey and misty weather had hindered plant growth for an extended period, particularly for growers who had planted before Christmas. Some growers had already decided, following the grey spring of 2024, to plant later this year. Others are now considering doing the same for next year, after yet another dull start to their cultivation.
Despite the now favourable growing weather, challenges remain. Some growers are dealing with powdery mildew, and there is still an adjustment phase to the latest ToBRFV-resistant varieties, especially when grown under full LED lighting. These newer resistant varieties tend to be somewhat more vegetative and slightly less productive than their non-resistant predecessors. However, breeding companies continue to introduce improved varieties, which are gradually enabling growers to reach the production levels seen before the emergence of ToBRFV-resistant types.
Thanks to the revival of lit cultivation, volumes were higher again in the last quarter of 2024, and yields also increased. As volumes have risen in recent weeks, prices have begun to decline. Currently, prices at the Belgian auctions—a key price reference—are in line with the five-year average. Prices are slightly higher than last year and slightly lower than around this time in 2023, when lower volumes were available due to a more difficult winter and reduced lit production.
This year, reduced import volumes from Spain are helping the situation. Local growers are benefitting, including through an early increase in sales of vine tomatoes to the German market.
Spain: Fall tomato season closes with higher average prices
The Spanish fall season is in its final stretch. Regarding tomatoes, approximately 75% of the production has been harvested. The provisional balance through March shows that tomatoes rank as the third most highly valued product, after peppers and eggplants, reaching €0.96/kg, compared to €0.85/kg at the same time during the 2023/24 season, according to data from the Andalusian Regional Government.
"We're almost at the end of the fall campaign," notes a farmer from the largest tomato cooperative in Almería. "I think we'll be completely finished in about two weeks, including the beefsteak tomatoes that went into production a couple of months ago. However, this year we're going to have plenty of spring tomatoes in about 70 hectares of greenhouses in the Guadix and Zafarraya areas. This way, we'll be able to continue marketing into the summer, and we'll be able to do so thanks to the rugose virus-resistant varieties."
"For spring, some crops have been affected, but in general, the performance of the rugose virus-resistant varieties has been very good so far."
Italy: Sicilian tomato season stable with lower virus pressure
The Sicilian table tomato campaign began with the first harvests in November 2024 and has so far progressed in a steady and balanced manner. Prices have remained stable compared to the previous year, with cherry tomatoes averaging between €1.60 and €1.70 per kilo. Datterino tomatoes are fetching higher prices, around €2.50/kg, while Piccadilly tomatoes are averaging approximately €2.30/kg.
On the phytosanitary front, there's encouraging news: pressure from ToBRFV—the feared tomato brown rugose fruit virus—has been lower than in previous years, leading to better yields than those recorded during the 2023/24 season.
Looking at international competition, Turkey remains a growing presence, but this year it hasn't significantly impacted the market. The situation is different for Spain, which has scaled back its winter tomato production in favor of the spring-summer cycle. This shift will lead to a greater influx of products in the coming months, coinciding with arrivals from Northern Italy and other European countries, raising concerns about potential market overlaps and congestion.
Germany: Tomato supply broadens as season nears end
A wide range of products was available, with participation from numerous countries. In addition to the main importers, the Netherlands and Belgium, Spain and Italy now played only a secondary role, as their campaigns near completion. Imports from Turkey and Morocco also declined steadily with the approach of the end of the season.
Meat tomatoes are currently significantly more expensive than during the same period last year. The same trend applies to vine tomatoes and round tomatoes.
France: Tomato prices fall after early April rise
The tomato market had a dynamic start to April in France. Low production in southern Europe and mild weather across much of Europe led to a rise in prices, particularly for French-origin tomatoes.
This week, however, the situation has reversed, with less fluid sales and a shift in weather conditions. European production has intensified, with increased volumes of tomatoes arriving from Morocco, Spain, and the Benelux countries. As sales have declined, prices have also fallen.
South Africa: Gauteng tomato market remains unpredictable
The tomato market has been very difficult to interpret over the past two months, remarks a Gauteng market trader. Unusually high levels of rainfall over an extended period and across most summer rainfall regions, where tomatoes are typically grown, led to the expectation that supply would be limited. Tonnages delivered to the markets were indeed somewhat, though not drastically, lower during March 2025 compared to the same month in 2024.
The rainfall did not significantly affect volumes but had a major impact on both demand and shelf life. "The quality is much poorer than we normally see at this time of the year, and during the early part of the season, the heat in December also affected shelf life and yield."
However, the market agent notes that tomato demand seems weaker than usual. The average tomato price has encountered resistance, and market observers report an average price of R15 (€0.70) per kilogram, despite volumes reportedly being 30% higher than at the same point last year. Compared to April 2024, prices are significantly, by some estimates, up to 25% lower.
From this point forward, tomato prices are expected to continue declining as the winter tomato crop begins, unless disrupted by another black frost event like the one experienced in July 2024. The market agent concludes that accurately forecasting the tomato market has become increasingly difficult.
Morocco: Tomato exports rise despite challenges
Morocco exported 690,000 tons of tomatoes this season, marking a 19% year-over-year increase. Of the total, 58% were non-round varieties. The United Kingdom imported 122,720 tons in 2024, with snack tomatoes making up 68% of that volume, over 30% of the UK's total tomato imports. Overall, the UK accounted for 18% of Moroccan tomato exports, which reached 46 countries this season.
Direct shipments to Germany also saw strong growth, rising from 69,800 tons in 2023 to 98,400 tons in 2024. Baby plum tomatoes accounted for 68% of the volume exported to Germany.
Despite the export success, Moroccan growers faced notable challenges this season. The Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus (ToBRFV) led to an estimated 15–20% production loss. In response, producers increasingly adopted resistant varieties, including newer alternatives to established cultivars like Angelle, while focusing on improving both yield and quality.
Ongoing drought conditions in the Souss Massa region further pressured production. Many growers now depend on seawater desalination to sustain output.
Tensions with European markets added complexity to the season. Although protests against Moroccan tomato imports in France and Spain have calmed compared to last year, political and legal resistance remains strong. The European Court of Justice's annulment of trade agreements between the EU and Morocco has given European growers a legal avenue to contest Moroccan import volumes. Both sides have traded accusations of unfair competition.
Key developments are expected at the Moroccan International Agricultural Exhibition (SIAM) from April 21 to 27, 2025, where France will be the guest of honor. Stakeholders are anticipating a new agreement between Moroccan and French producers, though French demands to halt Moroccan exports between April and October remain a point of contention.
An exporter noted that Moroccan shipments to France are already declining, as French intermediaries once central to re-exports are increasingly bypassed in favor of direct shipments to other European markets like Germany.
The industry will gather again at the Morocco Tomato Conference in Agadir on May 21. This year's event is expected to focus on the combined effects of production risks, shifting trade dynamics, and long-term strategic planning for the sector.
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