Due to the uncertainties of human behaviour, policies often play out differently in practice than what one might expect based on rational models. Researcher Emile Chappin aims to better align policy and practice by modelling human behaviour to accelerate the energy transition. In his research, he wants to give the greenhouse horticulture sector a boost in using clean energy more intelligently and profitably by using computer simulations that include behavioural uncertainties.
The Dutch greenhouse horticulture sector is highly innovative. By using technology, the sector constantly seeks ways to grow crops as efficiently and sustainably as possible. At the same time, greenhouse operators aim to stay profitable. This means that in uncertain times, such as with fluctuating energy prices and inconsistent energy policies, they often opt for less sustainable solutions, says Emile Chappin, researcher in energy systems and simulations. "Often, they stick to their combined heat and power (CHP) systems, which convert natural gas into heat and electricity. The CO₂ produced in this process is directly used for crop production."
Choosing certainty
While CHP systems are convenient, they are still powered by fossil fuels—the very thing we are trying to move away from, Chappin continues. "But for many businesses, the uncertainty is just too great to make the switch to, for example, geothermal energy. Such a system is expensive, and as an entrepreneur, you want to know when that investment will pay off. Additionally, you still need alternative sources for both electricity and CO₂. It takes a lot of time to figure this out, and it requires courage to make these kinds of decisions. So, if a company has a long-term gas contract at a low rate during uncertain times, it's understandable for an entrepreneur to say, 'I'll stick with my CHP for now.'"
Energy hubs in greenhouse horticulture
Despite these uncertainties, solutions like energy hubs offer sustainable energy options for greenhouse horticulture. Chappin explains: "An energy hub is an overarching system where energy, such as heat, is exchanged between different stakeholders. These could be neighbouring businesses in the same sector or even surrounding industries or residential areas. In such a system, for instance, a greenhouse grower could use waste heat and CO₂ from a nearby factory. Or, a group of greenhouse businesses could jointly invest in a geothermal installation, sharing the costs."
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