The Netherlands is very unlikely to meet its legal climate target of 55 percent emissions reduction by 2030. That, already leaked, is the conclusion drawn by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. PBL is publishing the Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV) 2024.
The report is also not positive about greenhouse horticulture meeting the 2030 target. PBL estimates the probability of the sector meeting the 4.3 megaton emission target at only 10%. Five years later, the sector does come close, according to PBL estimates. Within the agricultural sector, it is mainly greenhouse horticulture where further energy savings are expected in the longer term.
CHP still profitable
Estimates for energy consumption in greenhouse horticulture are higher than in the 2022 KEV. This is because running CHPs still pays off when there are power shortages. It also takes into account a larger area of greenhouse horticulture in 2030 than two years ago: 9,900 hectares in 2030. Area development of the sector is mentioned in the KEV as an uncertain factor in the emission estimates, alongside Tata Steel sustainability and weather developments, among others.
With adopted and planned policies, greenhouse gas emissions for greenhouse horticulture fall from 6.3 megaton CO2 equivalents in 2023 to 5.8 [3.8-8.1] megaton CO2 equivalents in 2030, including methane slip from CHP gas engines. CHP deployment plays a major role in the estimates. Although the number of profitable running hours decreases towards 2030, CHP deployment is still expected to be significant in 2030.
ETS2 opt-in
The PBL conclusion is that (many) additional policies are needed if the Netherlands is still to meet the targets. For greenhouse horticulture, much has already been done last year with a package of tax measures to steer the sector towards the 2030 target. It is possible that an ETS2 opt-in will be added.
PBL has not yet assigned an effect to the introduction of the opt-in in its calculations. The cabinet will decide on this in spring 2025. The same applies to so-called energy BVs in greenhouse horticulture. About that, the KEV 2024 reads:
"It is possible that part of the energy consumed by the greenhouse horticulture sector will be taxed under ETS2, because it comes from so-called energy-BVs, which are directly covered by ETS2 and therefore not dependent on a possible opt-in from the sector. The extent of energy consumption by installations, that specifically use this construction, is
not known to CBS. (...) Therefore, the analysis for this KEV does not take into account possible ETS2 costs for the so-called energy-BVs in the greenhouse horticulture sector."
Energy use in greenhouse horticulture decreases
PBL also looks beyond 2030. After 2035, only the mobility and greenhouse horticulture sectors foresee a further decline in energy use. Energy use in greenhouse horticulture will decrease towards 2040 through a combination of energy saving, the use of renewable energy and decreasing of renewable energy and a decreasing number of profitable running hours for CHP plants. Growing greenhouse horticulture climate-neutrally in 2040, PBL says, will not succeed based on current insights. A residual emission remains.
Emissions from livestock farming and arable farming are expected to barely decline between 2035 and 2040. This, PBL argues, is because there is hardly any policy with a knock-on effect after 2030. The slight decrease is therefore due to autonomous trends, in particular the decline in the dairy herd due to higher milk production per cow and a decrease in agricultural land.
PBL is critical of the current government, whose policies have too little effect on meeting climate targets. The Council of State is also critical. In response, it calls on the government to "take effective measures to achieve climate targets as soon as possible.
8 billion euros for the transition agriculture and horticulture sector
LTO is not surprised by the report. No improvement can be expected without adjustment of policy, it argues. Chairman Ger Koopmans: ''Farmers and market gardeners also feel responsible for contributing to the climate and energy transition. In recent years, there has been a lack of a climate program, permits to invest, and sufficient funding, as a result of which farmers and market gardeners cannot be expected to invest in climate measures. For the future, it is crucial that strategic policy and access to sufficient resources from the Climate Fund help farmers and market gardeners work towards an even more climate-conscious agriculture and horticulture. Long-term policy and effective spending of funds require an "Implementation program for climate-aware agriculture and horticulture" in which farmers and market gardeners are given sufficient time to realize their ambitions.
LTO points to recent research by the WUR. According to the sector organization, this shows that the current earning capacity of farmers and market gardeners is not sufficient to realize the desired transition. A 23% contribution to the target from agriculture and horticulture also legitimizes 23% of the total budget available from the climate fund. Converted, this amounts to about 8 billion. Moreover, the climate fund still contains over 15 billion euros of freely disposable funds to achieve the climate targets in 2030.