The tomato is considered a particularly popular fruit in Israel. It features in all meals, and it's hard to imagine our dining table without it. However, over the past month, many Israelis have struggled to find tomatoes in their local supermarkets. When tomatoes do appear on the shelves, the prices are exorbitant, and the quality is low. The suspension of imports from Turkey and supplies from Jordan, due to suspected cholera, has led to a 40% shortage of tomatoes in the market. Local issues also contribute to reliance on increasing imports has reduced local production, which is already declining each year due to climate change. Adding to the problem is a virulent virus that can easily wipe out entire greenhouses.
Each year, around 189 million tons of tomatoes are harvested globally, with the majority grown in California, China, and Italy. However, the climate crisis is causing disruptions on supermarket shelves, and these are expected to continue. For instance, California reported a tomato crop of 9.5 million tons in 2022, compared to the usual 12 million tons, due to prolonged high temperatures and persistent drought.
A recent study published in Nature predicts that by 2050, rising temperatures will lead to a permanent decrease of about 6% in tomato crops in Italy and California. Between 2050 and 2100, tomato yields could be halved under a worsening but plausible scenario. Consumers are already feeling the impact on their wallets. Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank found that by 2035, climate change could increase food prices by around 1% to 3% annually, primarily due to agricultural produce's inability to adapt to heat.
For example, last year, supermarkets in Great Britain, which rely on imports, faced a tomato shortage due to an extreme heat wave affecting growers in Spain and Italy. In Spain's Extremadura region, high temperatures and heavy rains in May and June, followed by heat waves in July, led to a 10% drop in production. In Morocco, an unexpected spring frost destroyed new fruit, causing the price of a kilogram of tomatoes to rise from about 5 Moroccan dirhams (half a dollar) to 12 dirhams (1.2 dollars). The Moroccan government then imposed a partial export ban, and farmers reported abandoning tomato cultivation due to high costs. Today, prices have climbed to about 18 dirhams.
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