The tomato market welcomes the rapid rise of ToBRFV-resistant varieties but recognizes the challenges, such as lower yields and less flavor.
Currently, a total of about 160 varieties are said to be commercially available or rapidly becoming available, and the number is growing rapidly. Experts expect the number of available varieties to triple in the coming year, and in two years' time, it is expected that even 80 to 90 per cent of the variety range will have resistance.
A pain point for now is that taste and production are (sometimes) disappointing. This is evident from minutes and presentations of European tomato talks at the end of June, which also looked ahead to the coming winter crops.
'Less productive'
During the European Commission expert meeting, experts shared experiences with resistant varieties in their markets. In the Netherlands, they assume a 7% production loss with HR- or IR-resistant varieties. In Belgium, too, people speak of 'less productive' when it comes to ToBRFV-resistant varieties, without putting a hard figure on it.
Growers outside the Benelux also report a lesser taste in tomatoes from resistant varieties. One advantage of growing with resistant varieties, however, is that being forced to stop an ongoing crop is less common, according to the Belgian contribution.
The number of growers growing with resistant varieties is large in the Benelux. In Belgium, the estimate is that in general, growers are cultivating resistant varieties this year.
In the Netherlands, where half of the growers with summer production suffered from ToBRFV and switched to coarser varieties and/or resistant varieties, half of the growers switched to resistant varieties.
The consequence of switching to resistant varieties is often a lower flavor level in tomatoes, though improvements are being made, now also with specialties. The latter was also touched upon at the Global Tomato Congress this spring. After the initial ToBRFV panic and the loud call for resistance, there is now (more) room again for other varietal characteristics.
In France, the estimate is that 20% of the area is growing with resistant varieties for now. The minutes of the consultation show that for Spain and Italy, no estimate on areas with resistant varieties has been made.
Winter cultivation forecasts
During the meeting, predictions were also shared for tomato cultivation next winter season. The Netherlands is counting on an area of 600 hectares with LED lighting. Classical lighting with HPS is out of the question next winter, due to the energy crisis. In the lit winter crop, growers only grow resistant varieties, according to the minutes, while in the summer half of them are.
To achieve year-round production, it is also noted that Dutch marketing organizations are looking for production outside the Netherlands, hoping to grow close to local consumers there as well. Poland, Hungary, Tunisia, and Morocco are mentioned for this purpose.
Figures on the expected exposed area in Belgium are not in the minutes. There are, however, figures on the total area under tomatoes in Belgium. This covers 610 hectares and is stable, although there are concerns about aging growers without a successor. In total, Belgium has about 180 growers.
In Spain, growers are counting on 10 percent fewer loose tomatoes in winter season 2024/2025 compared to last winter season. Tonnage is expected to decline slightly compared to last winter (1,233,512 tonnes compared to 1,265,141 tonnes in 2023/2024). Whereas organic cultivation increases by 2% to 14%, conventional tomato cultivation is expected to decrease by 3% to 86% next winter. Slightly more vine tomatoes will be grown (26% of the total area of 13,983 hectares, up 1%) and slightly less loose, round tomatoes (27%, down 2%).
In Spain, they point to increasing competition from Morocco and Turkey. Another challenge, besides ToBRFV being 'under control', is rising production costs. In March 2024, the peak price for this reached 54 euro cents per kilo, up 34% from June 2021.