In less than two months, the Tomato Suspension Agreement is set to terminate. With the termination scheduled for July 14, 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection will begin requiring antidumping cash deposits on entries of Mexican tomatoes from that date. It's another destabilizing factor in an already challenged trade environment, says Roee Tamari with Ahern Seeds. "Decisions concerning the new season must be made minimum two months before planting, in an environment where tariffs, interest rates, and exchange rates fluctuate weekly, even daily."
© Ahern Seeds
Over the last years, Ahern Seeds has expanded its services from simply dealing in seeds to include consultancy and additional support. "Growers need someone who understands their decision-making process across the season. The dealer must become a partner." Founded 44 years ago by Kevin Ahern, Ahern Agribusiness has long operated as a seed distribution platform across Mexico and Central America, serving growers producing for the U.S. fresh market. The acquisition of the company in 2020–2021 by Israeli ag-tech-focused investors, including Tene Investment Funds and Pulse Agri Investments, marked the beginning of a transition.
"We saw a need to change the way growers are served," says Roee, founder of Pulse Agri who took over Ahern following the acquisition. "Agriculture has changed, but the grower-distributor relationship has not evolved at the same pace. We want to change the classic input dealer (in this case, seeds) into a partner that provides services and adds products."
With over 60 field agronomists on the team, 3,000 trials ongoing, and deep insights into market trends and demand, Roee says Ahern helps growers access a full range of varieties and possibilities. "With a direct approach by the breeders, a grower would lack this information and pay the price."
He adds that market data is invaluable for breeders as well. "They need to focus on breeding, but in order to do so, you need to understand the market trends and the requested characteristics. Providing that insight makes us a critical component in the value chain." Throughout the season, the agronomists are available for crop support and cultivation. In addition, the company has expanded to provide services such as financing, pollination (via Ahern Bio Solutions), and consultancy on seedlings, biologicals, trials, and registration.
© Ahern Seeds
Market challenges
These Ahern Seeds developments come as market volatility continues to affect decision-making timelines for growers. Input cost increases, rising interest rates for working capital, water shortages, and extreme exchange rate fluctuations are just a few of the concerns. This year, unstable tariff and trade conditions are also becoming key concerns.
"You can't make decisions based on these circumstances — but in order to plant in time, you have to make those decisions today."
To make the situation more concrete, Roee outlines the environment growers are operating in, starting with the termination of the Tomato Suspension Agreement. This antidumping measure sets a floor price and quality standards for Mexican tomatoes on the U.S. market.
Roee explains that the development of the Mexican market is heavily tied to the Suspension Agreement. "Since its inception, two years after NAFTA was enacted, it changed everything. Back then, U.S. production was more dominant, but there are only limited places where tomatoes can be produced year-round. So when the Suspension Agreement was signed, production naturally began to move to areas that could meet U.S. demand. Eventually, up to 90 percent of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S. came from down south."
The Mexican industry evolved accordingly, shifting from open-field round tomatoes to protected cultivation of specialty tomatoes. "Mexico has a broad range of climates. For example, Sinaloa produce in winter, while central Mexico produce in Summer and spring. Thanks to the microclimates, there's year-round supply. That means a U.S. consumer in Iowa can go to Walmart at any time of the year and find any type of tomato they want."
This trend is expanding. "Previously, greenhouse crops like tomatoes, peppers, and cucumbers were moving to Mexico. Now it's also happening with crops you wouldn't expect — cauliflower, broccoli, leafy greens, carrots. The U.S. used to dominate these, but now they're increasingly moving into Mexico."
Now, with the Tomato Suspension Agreement set to end, Roee notices an assumption — even an expectation — that changes to regulations will bring production back to the U.S. "But is that realistic?" he asks. "In the U.S., there are limited places where you can produce year-round — basically only Florida. But over the years, much of that land has been sold for real estate development."
He adds that the product being demanded today is different from decades ago. "People extended their flavor from the open-field round tomato of the 90s — they want specialties and TOVs. There's not enough production in the U.S., and what is available doesn't match the full spectrum of market demand."
He questions whether the termination will support local production of greenhouse tomatoes. "The tariffs create uncertainty for U.S. growers too — affecting their cost of production and market potential."
© Ahern Seeds
If the Tomato Suspension Agreement is terminated, the U.S. Department of Commerce will reinstate a 21 percent anti-dumping duty on Mexican tomatoes. Roee says it will take a few months to feel the effects, as the agreement ends in July — peak season for planting preparations in Mexico.
"But in a few months, a new season will start, and if U.S. growers can't produce or don't have the quantities to supply, I think we'll quickly see shortages, availability fluctuations, instability, and higher prices."
This uncertainty results in a lack of investment in the Mexican industry — in machinery, expansion, and premium varieties. It comes at an already challenging time: interest rates for working capital have quadrupled in recent years, labor costs have risen significantly, and water availability is diminishing.
"Growers are also facing rugose and other viruses. Resistant varieties exist, but they come at a higher price — it's a risk to plant them if you don't know how much you'll be paid at the end of the season."
The same goes for small and snack tomatoes, which have become more popular in recent decades. Growers are reluctant to commit, as U.S. consumers may shift to cheaper tomatoes if prices rise. "If that happens, the specialty market has to deal with overflow."
© Ahern Seeds
© Ahern Seeds
Partner
It's moments like these that justify the role of a partner in the value chain, Roee believes. The company aims to help growers navigate market uncertainty, for example, by providing financing.
To support growers, Ahern takes on part of the risk itself. "Normally, our suppliers and growers require a forecast 12 months in advance. But with decisions being delayed, we also need to take on more risk to ensure availability for growers."
"Usually, I wouldn't commit to a purchase unless a certain percentage of the seeds are backed by growers' order. Otherwise, we'd be overloaded with inventory, which jeopardizes us. But this year, we're taking greater risks than ever before in order to ensure availability once later decisions will be made."
Although some of his colleagues call him crazy, Roee believes this is exactly the moment to justify their role as a partner in the value chain. "We don't own the genetics. We don't grow. And if we don't step up in moments like this, what is our service? We need to be there—with our growers."
For more information:
Ahern Agri
https://www.ahernagri.com/ 